MODEL VERDICT
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $13.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $14.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $18.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $16.08 | +20.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $16.27 | +22.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $6.69 | -49.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $48.61 | +265.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $20.74 | +55.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $47.40 | +256.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $16.73 | +25.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $16.98 | +27.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $6.69 | -49.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $48.25 | +262.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.34 | +90.5% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.70 | 25.25 | 20.52 | 31.33 | 5.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.95 | 11.62 | 7.27 | 53.30 | 21.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.35 | 8.45 | 5.49 | 11.03 | 2.27 |
| P/FCF | 13.99 | 14.02 | 5.16 | 22.78 | 7.27 |
| P/FFO | 129.81 | 16.81 | 13.25 | 472.38 | 228.40 |
| P/TBV | 4.06 | 3.65 | 1.70 | 7.29 | 1.92 |
| P/AFFO | 23.04 | 25.40 | 16.23 | 27.50 | 5.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.06 | 3.65 | 1.70 | 7.29 | 1.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 48.53 | 5.38 | 3.21 | 223.59 | 97.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ORLA's fair value at $25.34 vs the current price of $13.30, implying +90.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.78 (P10) to $33.11 (P90), with a median of $25.94.
ORLA's current P/E of 42.0x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +170.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.7x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover ORLA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.18 (range: $4.18 — $4.18), implying -68.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ORLA trades at the 8520th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ORLA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.