Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA)
Valuation Overview•Is Orla Mining Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 82/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with solvency as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
ORLA exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 73.9% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($54M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (77.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (24.7% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 47.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $373.6M | +212.7% | +77.2% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $245.7M | — | +77.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $74.4M | +22.1% | +33.4% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.19 | +14.8% | +24.7% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $56.8M | +360.9% | +105.3% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 53.4% | 57.5% | 61.0% | 61.0% |
| Operating Margin | 47.5% | 42.8% | -72.6% | -72.6% |
| Net Margin | 19.5% | 8.1% | -117.8% | -117.8% |
| FCF Margin | 26.5% | 41.2% | -554.0% | -554.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.37 | $0.39 | +5.4% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.35 | $0.37 | +5.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.36 | $0.40 | +11.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.20 | $0.21 | +5.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.18 | $0.20 | +11.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +20.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.07 | $0.07 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.09 | $0.06 | -33.3% |
Total return is -5.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -28.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -25.8% | -33.1% | — |
| 1Y | -5.7% | -28.0% | +0.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +34.3% | +19.0% | +0.9% |
| 5YCAGR | +20.2% | +8.4% | +0.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +26.0% | +13.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) valuation, health, and returns.
Orla Mining Ltd. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +66.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $17.28)
Orla Mining Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $17.28 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $22.78 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $4.18 (implying -57.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Orla Mining Ltd. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 82/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.4 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 73.9%.
Orla Mining Ltd. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Orla Mining Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +212.7% 1Y revenue growth and +14.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +77.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -57.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Orla Mining Ltd. include: -54.9% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.43x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.43x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.