MODEL VERDICT
Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $37.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $36.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $39.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $38.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $38.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $61.52 | +65.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $39.97 | +7.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $40.31 | +8.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $39.17 | +5.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $61.52 | +65.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $38.36 | +3.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.23 | +27.0% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $23 | $32 | $41 | $50 | $59 |
| Conservative (8%) | $24 | $33 | $42 | $52 | $61 |
| Base Case (12.6%) | $24 | $34 | $44 | $54 | $64 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $25 | $36 | $46 | $56 | $66 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.74 | 8.63 | 6.90 | 24.74 | 6.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.47 | 9.37 | 3.14 | 29.87 | 9.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.14 | 8.55 | 2.78 | 23.29 | 6.86 |
| P/FCF | 13.02 | 7.43 | 6.33 | 38.49 | 11.75 |
| P/FFO | 9.13 | 7.70 | 5.53 | 17.20 | 3.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.17 | 1.21 | 0.82 | 1.36 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 9.71 | 8.16 | 5.75 | 18.10 | 4.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 1.06 | 0.74 | 1.16 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.44 | 2.30 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ORRF's fair value at $47.23 vs the current price of $37.19, implying +27.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.71 (P10) to $51.08 (P90), with a median of $45.82.
ORRF's current P/E of 8.5x compares to the industry median of 14.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -39.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover ORRF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ORRF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 920.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.