MODEL VERDICT
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $155.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $150.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $147.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $140.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $151.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $226.12 | +45.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $239.61 | +54.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $285.28 | +83.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $34.69 | -77.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $259.93 | +67.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $208.54 | +34.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $80.92 | -47.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $290.21 | +86.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $212.96 | +37.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $282.65 | +82.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $34.64 | -77.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $207.97 | +33.9% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $112 | $133 | $153 | $174 | $194 |
| Conservative (5%) | $116 | $137 | $158 | $179 | $200 |
| Base Case (4.8%) | $116 | $137 | $158 | $179 | $200 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $117 | $139 | $160 | $181 | $203 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.04 | 12.54 | 9.16 | 33.53 | 8.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.66 | 12.46 | 6.85 | 49.58 | 14.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.59 | 10.46 | 5.78 | 40.69 | 12.13 |
| P/FCF | 28.12 | 23.20 | 7.05 | 75.99 | 22.37 |
| P/FFO | 18.20 | 12.73 | 7.08 | 53.91 | 16.35 |
| P/TBV | 6.57 | 4.61 | 3.18 | 20.00 | 5.98 |
| P/AFFO | 89.72 | 16.51 | 10.40 | 486.03 | 175.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.24 | 2.08 | 1.50 | 10.37 | 3.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.31 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 4.51 | 1.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates OSK's fair value at $207.97 vs the current price of $155.29, implying +33.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $207.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $173.05 (P10) to $239.68 (P90), with a median of $204.12.
OSK's current P/E of 15.5x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -45.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover OSK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $168.00 (range: $138.00 — $197.00), implying +8.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OSK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2260.0% to approximately $190. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.