Oshkosh Corp (OSK)
Valuation Overview•Is Oshkosh Corp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 59/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Confirm your valuation thesis with live pattern overlays, key pivot levels, and AI trade plans.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
OSK demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (56.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 7.5%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | -2.9% | +8.0% | +8.7% | +5.5% | |
| EBITDA | $305.4M | — | +34.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $183.2M | -5.0% | +55.0% | — | +10.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.92 | -3.5% | +56.2% | +16.2% | +13.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $349.1M | +129.7% | +23.0% | +25.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 15.9% | 17.7% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| Operating Margin | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| Net Margin | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| FCF Margin | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $2.63 | $2.87 | +9.1% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.04 | $0.85 | -18.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.33 | $2.26 | -3.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $3.10 | $3.20 | +3.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.98 | $3.41 | +14.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.02 | $1.92 | -5.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.18 | $2.58 | +18.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.92 | $2.93 | +0.3% |
Total return is +5.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -10.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +5.7% | -7.5% | — |
| 1Y | +5.8% | -10.2% | +1.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +14.7% | -5.9% | +6.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +7.1% | -3.9% | +8.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.4% | -2.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Oshkosh Corp (OSK) valuation, health, and returns.
Oshkosh Corp is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -23.3% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $120.43)
Oshkosh Corp has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $120.43 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $234.44 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $169.29 (implying +22.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Oshkosh Corp displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 59/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.9 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 13.5%.
Oshkosh Corp pays a 1.5% dividend yield, covered by a 20% payout ratio with 12 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.2% buyback yield.
Oshkosh Corp's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -2.9% 1Y revenue growth and -3.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 38 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +22.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Oshkosh Corp include: -33.1% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.49x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.49x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.