MODEL VERDICT
Outfront Media Inc. (OUT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $31.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $30.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $30.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $29.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $29.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 4 REIT peers | $23.90 | -24.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $18.57 | -41.4% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $16.83 | -46.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $30.34 | -4.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 2 industry peers | $18.48 | -41.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $31.17 | -1.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $10.15 | -68.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $33.18 | +4.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $27.54 | -13.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.21 | +4.7% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 |
| Conservative (7%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.71 | 27.65 | 11.73 | 111.75 | 40.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.07 | 27.36 | 16.45 | 85.97 | 25.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.15 | 17.05 | 12.13 | 28.59 | 6.08 |
| P/FCF | 85.78 | 18.64 | 13.71 | 460.99 | 166.01 |
| P/FFO | 16.36 | 13.34 | 7.40 | 33.28 | 9.64 |
| P/AFFO | 78.91 | 20.47 | 9.14 | 366.56 | 141.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.26 | 3.15 | 1.99 | 5.56 | 1.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 2.15 | 1.26 | 2.68 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OUT's fair value at $33.21 vs the current price of $31.71, implying +4.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.36 (P10) to $53.14 (P90), with a median of $31.44.
OUT's current P/E of 36.4x compares to the industry median of 35.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +1.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.7x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover OUT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.33 (range: $24.00 — $28.00), implying -17.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OUT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7840.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.