MODEL VERDICT
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $50.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $50.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $46.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $46.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $38.67 | Below threshold | +21.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $56.84 | +12.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $35.15 | -30.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $68.22 | +34.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $53.12 | +5.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $48.14 | -4.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $33.42 | -33.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $52.78 | +4.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $71.73 | +41.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $68.22 | +34.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $54.82 | +8.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.04 | -7.0% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $35 | $45 | $55 | $65 | $75 |
| Conservative (7%) | $36 | $46 | $56 | $66 | $76 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $37 | $47 | $58 | $68 | $79 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $38 | $49 | $60 | $71 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.89 | 7.27 | 3.60 | 26.06 | 8.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.93 | 9.45 | 4.54 | 20.34 | 5.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.49 | 4.36 | 3.54 | 5.42 | 0.77 |
| P/FCF | 11.26 | 7.64 | 5.58 | 23.46 | 7.50 |
| P/FFO | 3.00 | 2.96 | 2.72 | 3.44 | 0.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.03 | 1.49 | 0.84 | 3.67 | 1.07 |
| P/AFFO | 8.05 | 8.26 | 4.49 | 9.94 | 2.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.05 | 0.62 | 1.77 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.00 | 1.05 | 0.61 | 1.18 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OVV's fair value at $47.04 vs the current price of $50.59, implying -7.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.69 (P10) to $59.53 (P90), with a median of $50.46.
OVV's current P/E of 10.6x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -25.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
26 analysts cover OVV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.14 (range: $46.00 — $58.00), implying +3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OVV trades at the 3490th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OVV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7140.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.