MODEL VERDICT
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $22.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $21.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $21.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $21.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $21.26 | -4.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $25.14 | +12.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $11.93 | -46.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $37.17 | +66.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $14.04 | -37.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $38.11 | +70.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $170.34 | +661.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $179.63 | +703.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $11.93 | -46.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $37.17 | +66.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.42 | +22.6% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 |
| Base Case (-22.7%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Bull Case (-31%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.54 | 10.35 | 6.94 | 23.40 | 6.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.27 | 9.22 | 8.84 | 13.85 | 2.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.62 | 8.94 | 7.10 | 9.77 | 1.12 |
| P/FCF | 7.83 | 6.41 | 4.03 | 16.44 | 4.53 |
| P/FFO | 5.25 | 5.10 | 4.12 | 6.67 | 0.91 |
| P/TBV | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.62 | 1.84 | 0.46 |
| P/AFFO | 8.65 | 7.87 | 5.33 | 14.53 | 3.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.52 | 1.33 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.47 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAA's fair value at $27.42 vs the current price of $22.36, implying +22.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.32 (P10) to $34.62 (P90), with a median of $30.46.
PAA's current P/E of 30.6x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +87.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
42 analysts cover PAA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.60 (range: $21.00 — $25.00), implying +1.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (23), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PAA trades at the 8610th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6310.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.