Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)
Valuation Overview•Is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 36/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
PAA struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-8.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (11.7% EPS 3Y CAGR). However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (3.0%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | -11.6% | -8.3% | +13.7% | +6.7% | |
| EBITDA | $508.0M | — | +1.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $152.0M | +85.9% | +11.4% | — | +4.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.14 | +127.4% | +11.7% | — | +8.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $288.0M | +22.6% | +5.5% | +24.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% |
| Operating Margin | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Net Margin | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| FCF Margin | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.37 | $0.39 | +6.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.47 | $0.40 | -14.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.35 | $0.39 | +9.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.32 | $0.36 | +11.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.44 | $0.39 | -10.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.40 | $0.42 | +5.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.31 | $0.37 | +19.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.31 | $0.31 | +0.0% |
Total return is +24.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -0.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +21.8% | +12.5% | — |
| 1Y | +24.6% | -0.4% | +8.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +24.0% | +4.9% | +31.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +19.8% | +6.8% | +53.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.2% | -11.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) valuation, health, and returns.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. is estimated to be fairly valued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $0.00)
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $0.00 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $26.66 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $24.29 (implying +13.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 36/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.7 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.3%.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. pays a 7.1% dividend yield, covered by a 75% payout ratio with 4 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.3% buyback yield.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -11.6% 1Y revenue growth and +127.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -8.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 42 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +13.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. include: -16.3% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.12x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.