MODEL VERDICT
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $169.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $160.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $161.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $155.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $156.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $143.78 | -15.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $86.83 | -48.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $191.96 | +13.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $152.82 | -10.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $121.13 | -28.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $127.85 | -24.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $172.14 | +1.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $205.67 | +21.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $155.37 | -8.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $186.52 | +9.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $152.44 | -10.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $159.53 | -6.1% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $120 | $150 | $180 | $210 | $241 |
| Conservative (10%) | $125 | $156 | $187 | $218 | $250 |
| Base Case (16.0%) | $131 | $164 | $197 | $229 | $262 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $137 | $172 | $206 | $240 | $275 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.20 | 9.51 | 6.20 | 11.20 | 1.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.64 | 11.71 | 7.77 | 15.97 | 2.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.54 | 12.01 | 9.53 | 16.77 | 2.54 |
| P/FCF | 11.04 | 12.57 | 4.71 | 15.20 | 4.26 |
| P/FFO | 7.75 | 7.60 | 5.67 | 9.46 | 1.39 |
| P/TBV | 6.78 | 6.16 | 5.29 | 11.89 | 2.30 |
| P/AFFO | 11.17 | 12.44 | 6.98 | 13.81 | 2.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.88 | 1.95 | 1.44 | 2.30 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAG's fair value at $159.53 vs the current price of $169.84, implying -6.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $159.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $115.33 (P10) to $177.48 (P90), with a median of $143.26.
PAG's current P/E of 12.0x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -11.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
26 analysts cover PAG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $190.00 (range: $190.00 — $190.00), implying +11.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PAG trades at the 2310th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4060.0% to approximately $239. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.