MODEL VERDICT
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $180.20 | +1725.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $807.55 | +8081.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $245.38 | +2386.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $69.51 | +604.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $983.08 | +9860.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $42.93 | +335.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $120.70 | +1122.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $313.69 | +3078.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $245.38 | +2386.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $69.51 | +604.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $271.17 | +2647.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $29 | $36 | $51 | $66 | $80 |
| Conservative (8%) | $30 | $38 | $53 | $68 | $83 |
| Base Case (12.2%) | $31 | $39 | $55 | $70 | $86 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $32 | $41 | $57 | $73 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.27 | 2.45 | 0.95 | 14.51 | 5.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.55 | 4.94 | 2.57 | 10.74 | 2.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.68 | 4.94 | 2.11 | 8.82 | 2.31 |
| P/FCF | 45.67 | 2.02 | 1.85 | 176.80 | 87.42 |
| P/FFO | 4.38 | 2.92 | 0.54 | 11.25 | 4.29 |
| P/TBV | 3.51 | 0.38 | 0.17 | 11.88 | 4.52 |
| P/AFFO | 26.19 | 5.51 | 0.78 | 129.18 | 50.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.08 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 10.45 | 4.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 2.81 | 1.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAGS's fair value at $271.17 vs the current price of $9.87, implying +2647.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $271.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $173.75 (P10) to $352.15 (P90), with a median of $259.53.
PAGS's current P/E of 7.1x compares to the industry median of 35.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -80.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover PAGS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.18 (range: $7.70 — $14.00), implying +23.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PAGS trades at the 510th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAGS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 38450.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.