MODEL VERDICT
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $69.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $68.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $70.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $69.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $68.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $76.96 | +11.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $110.93 | +60.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $80.31 | +15.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $103.11 | +48.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $76.96 | +11.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $63.12 | -9.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.42 | +18.9% | 100% | 100 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $58 | $70 | $82 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $48 | $60 | $72 | $84 | $96 |
| Base Case (0.1%) | $46 | $57 | $69 | $80 | $92 |
| Bull Case (0%) | $46 | $57 | $69 | $80 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.68 | 12.91 | 12.08 | 15.90 | 1.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.73 | 14.05 | 6.97 | 18.46 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.93 | 13.30 | 6.67 | 17.45 | 4.20 |
| P/FCF | 12.61 | 12.64 | 9.91 | 15.85 | 2.19 |
| P/FFO | 12.57 | 12.20 | 9.35 | 14.98 | 1.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.94 | 1.95 | 1.61 | 2.28 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 13.28 | 13.04 | 9.81 | 15.82 | 2.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.88 | 5.23 | 3.76 | 5.82 | 0.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PB's fair value at $82.42 vs the current price of $69.33, implying +18.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.54 (P10) to $87.92 (P90), with a median of $83.61.
PB's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -9.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover PB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.00 (range: $68.00 — $76.00), implying +5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (36.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3040.0% to approximately $90. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.