MODEL VERDICT
Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $15.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $12.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $28.46 | +83.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $24.49 | +57.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $20.29 | +30.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $41.56 | +167.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $34.69 | +123.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $42.26 | +172.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $5.26 | -66.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $13.04 | -16.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $20.28 | +30.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $48.83 | +214.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.98 | +41.5% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 96.62 | 17.81 | 12.58 | 338.27 | 161.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.36 | 26.84 | 9.73 | 42.70 | 12.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.00 | 7.55 | 6.79 | 9.71 | 1.14 |
| P/FCF | 8.11 | 7.27 | 5.36 | 13.17 | 3.11 |
| P/FFO | 6.47 | 7.14 | 3.36 | 10.59 | 2.87 |
| P/AFFO | 16.02 | 14.98 | 8.87 | 25.25 | 8.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.78 | 10.82 | 2.50 | 14.96 | 5.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.97 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PBI's fair value at $21.98 vs the current price of $15.53, implying +41.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.33 (P10) to $42.57 (P90), with a median of $30.11.
PBI's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -23.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 96.6x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover PBI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.57 (range: $11.00 — $13.70), implying -19.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.7% is 15.4 percentage points above the 4-year average (5.0%), with a Z-score of +2.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$53. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PBI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 24310.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.