Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $36.6B | $25.7B | $7.5B | $12.6B | $12.4B | $12.8B | $12.5B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $11.24 | $7.88 | $2.34 | $3.96 | $3.94 | $4.09 | $4.03 |
| YoY Growth | — | -29.9% | -70.7% | +67.6% | -1.5% | +2.9% | -2.5% |
| Net Margin | 29.4% | 24.3% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 15.5% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $91.4B | $82.8B | $80.0B | $74.5B | $71.5B |
| Net Income | $7.5B | $12.6B | $12.4B | $12.8B | $12.5B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.34 | $3.96 | $3.94 | $4.09 | $4.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.3B | $27.4B | $27.0B | $25.6B | $24.9B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $3.96. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 34/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras: Bear case $8, Base case $28, and Bull case $80. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -4.2%, reaching approximately $82.8B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 34/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's forward operating margin is estimated at 27.9% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($8) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 72.1% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.