MODEL VERDICT
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $15.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.88 | Pending | +28.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $29.45 | +77.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $57.33 | +244.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $37.44 | +125.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $98.63 | +493.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $66.70 | +301.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $92.04 | +453.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $42.95 | +158.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $24.58 | +47.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $30.67 | +84.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $38.11 | +129.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $102.54 | +516.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.15 | +201.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $11 | $14 | $19 | $25 | $30 |
| Conservative (28%) | $12 | $15 | $21 | $27 | $33 |
| Base Case (42.4%) | $13 | $17 | $23 | $30 | $37 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $15 | $18 | $26 | $33 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.65 | 5.50 | 0.95 | 56.15 | 23.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.15 | 6.57 | 1.42 | 24.72 | 8.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.08 | 2.58 | 1.21 | 5.14 | 1.55 |
| P/FCF | 10.79 | 1.78 | 0.87 | 61.05 | 22.23 |
| P/FFO | 2.83 | 2.07 | 0.70 | 5.82 | 1.96 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 1.90 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 18.63 | 7.73 | 0.86 | 95.38 | 34.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 1.40 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 1.09 | 0.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 1.36 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PBR's fair value at $50.15 vs the current price of $16.63, implying +201.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.73 (P10) to $68.29 (P90), with a median of $52.44.
PBR's current P/E of 7.1x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -55.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover PBR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.53 (range: $14.60 — $17.00), implying -6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PBR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 40170.0% to approximately $83. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.