MODEL VERDICT
PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $116.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $127.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $126.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $123.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $127.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $143.12 | +23.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $129.42 | +11.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $138.80 | +19.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $206.41 | +77.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $142.77 | +23.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $235.08 | +102.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $107.31 | -7.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $161.37 | +39.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $135.01 | +16.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $139.34 | +20.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $202.23 | +74.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $143.28 | +23.4% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $104 | $114 | $123 | $133 | $142 |
| Conservative (8%) | $107 | $117 | $127 | $137 | $146 |
| Base Case (12.6%) | $112 | $122 | $132 | $142 | $152 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $116 | $127 | $137 | $148 | $158 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.88 | 13.17 | 11.15 | 24.28 | 5.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.40 | 13.00 | 9.83 | 24.02 | 4.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.89 | 10.95 | 8.51 | 14.40 | 2.22 |
| P/FCF | 26.46 | 21.10 | 17.51 | 55.52 | 13.56 |
| P/FFO | 11.24 | 10.79 | 7.93 | 18.01 | 3.36 |
| P/TBV | 2.91 | 2.88 | 2.62 | 3.23 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 22.95 | 18.39 | 12.03 | 42.11 | 10.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.91 | 2.88 | 2.62 | 3.23 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.47 | 1.46 | 1.07 | 2.03 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCAR's fair value at $143.28 vs the current price of $116.08, implying +23.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $143.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.23 (P10) to $158.03 (P90), with a median of $143.04.
PCAR's current P/E of 25.7x compares to the industry median of 30.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -16.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
45 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $124.50 (range: $109.00 — $138.00), implying +7.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (28), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PCAR trades at the 5380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PCAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1670.0% to approximately $97. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.