MODEL VERDICT
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $14.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $13.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $13.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $13.01 | -7.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $8.68 | -38.4% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $8.17 | -42.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $0.90 | -93.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $21.89 | +55.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $15.25 | +8.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $22.05 | +56.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.58 | -3.5% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 71.37 | 63.87 | 27.97 | 129.76 | 43.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.83 | 14.60 | 11.88 | 41.86 | 11.46 |
| P/FCF | 8.50 | 8.70 | 5.90 | 10.78 | 1.75 |
| P/FFO | 20.52 | 10.73 | 7.20 | 74.28 | 26.40 |
| P/TBV | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 0.96 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 26.52 | 20.55 | 10.03 | 48.97 | 20.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 0.96 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.34 | 1.37 | 0.90 | 5.54 | 1.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEB's fair value at $13.58 vs the current price of $14.08, implying -3.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.85 (P10) to $22.70 (P90), with a median of $15.23.
PEB's current P/E of -15.6x compares to the industry median of 27.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -157.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover PEB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.65 (range: $10.00 — $16.25), implying -3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (15), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PEB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.