Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$167.18
→
Intrinsic$101.53
-39%
$64.77$101.53$174.70
Market implies 19% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $167, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (19%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $65 → Bull $175. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $126 | $139 | $152 | $167 |
| 10% | $84 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| 12% | $62 | $68 | $75 | $82 |
| 14% | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($175) offers 4% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($65) implies 61% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 19% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 39% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$15.17B
Year 2$16.38B
Year 3$17.69B
Year 4$19.11B
Year 5$20.64B
Terminal$326.99B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$14.04BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.