MODEL VERDICT
Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $89.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $91.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $96.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $97.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $93.78 | Below threshold | +3.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $64.74 | -27.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $26.41 | -70.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $46.51 | -48.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $64.06 | -28.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $51.91 | -42.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $34.04 | -62.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $6.12 | -93.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $39.71 | -55.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $70.13 | -21.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $46.50 | -48.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $63.98 | -28.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.83 | -14.2% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $77 | $84 | $92 | $99 | $107 |
| Conservative (5%) | $79 | $87 | $95 | $102 | $110 |
| Base Case (2.3%) | $77 | $85 | $92 | $100 | $107 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $78 | $85 | $93 | $101 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.11 | 20.48 | 13.57 | 48.52 | 13.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.60 | 17.10 | 13.67 | 27.20 | 5.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.52 | 16.47 | 11.70 | 353.76 | 128.04 |
| P/FCF | 31.03 | 23.48 | 10.55 | 85.61 | 25.40 |
| P/FFO | 16.74 | 15.49 | 10.62 | 27.64 | 6.16 |
| P/AFFO | 23.77 | 22.37 | 15.64 | 36.71 | 7.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 26.49 | 22.44 | 5.99 | 64.34 | 20.98 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.54 | 1.95 | 1.26 | 6.66 | 1.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SGI's fair value at $76.83 vs the current price of $89.51, implying -14.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.87 (P10) to $152.68 (P90), with a median of $74.72.
SGI's current P/E of 48.6x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +92.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover SGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $102.50 (range: $90.00 — $115.00), implying +14.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (7), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SGI trades at the 9290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SGI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4520.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.