MODEL VERDICT
Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation (PGC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $46.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $44.22 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $43.25 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $42.83 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $31.24 | -32.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $48.06 | +3.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $58.76 | +27.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $8.18 | -82.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $31.28 | -32.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $40.54 | -12.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.02 | -22.1% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $39 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $57 |
| Conservative (6%) | $40 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $41 | $46 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $43 | $47 | $52 | $57 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.17 | 12.66 | 9.30 | 17.32 | 2.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.93 | 10.55 | 7.98 | 14.23 | 2.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 | 9.99 | 7.24 | 12.50 | 2.01 |
| P/FCF | 9.99 | 9.07 | 5.99 | 17.25 | 3.88 |
| P/FFO | 11.58 | 11.12 | 8.72 | 15.20 | 2.34 |
| P/TBV | 1.12 | 1.02 | 0.80 | 1.42 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 13.35 | 12.02 | 9.12 | 19.37 | 3.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1.30 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.99 | 1.91 | 1.12 | 2.99 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PGC's fair value at $36.02 vs the current price of $46.25, implying -22.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.06 (P10) to $38.86 (P90), with a median of $36.45.
PGC's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +48.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover PGC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.00 (range: $49.00 — $49.00), implying +5.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PGC trades at the 9130th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PGC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1480.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.