MODEL VERDICT
Progyny, Inc. (PGNY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $19.91 | +7.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $17.16 | -7.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $17.78 | -4.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $48.68 | +161.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $21.60 | +16.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $59.49 | +219.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $8.97 | -51.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $18.10 | -2.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $17.04 | -8.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $18.00 | -3.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $48.44 | +160.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.77 | +183.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Base Case (6.7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 66.68 | 68.13 | 30.26 | 103.83 | 28.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 158.73 | 128.58 | 22.29 | 495.71 | 166.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 137.39 | 120.33 | 21.29 | 403.57 | 133.21 |
| P/FCF | 68.80 | 30.29 | 9.48 | 211.35 | 80.99 |
| P/FFO | 63.77 | 66.77 | 28.63 | 97.43 | 27.66 |
| P/TBV | 13.65 | 8.53 | 4.06 | 27.29 | 9.76 |
| P/AFFO | 69.87 | 69.75 | 31.60 | 108.42 | 27.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.67 | 8.26 | 3.90 | 25.15 | 8.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.12 | 3.96 | 1.41 | 12.18 | 4.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PGNY's fair value at $52.77 vs the current price of $18.60, implying +183.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.60 (P10) to $81.67 (P90), with a median of $56.90.
PGNY's current P/E of 28.6x compares to the industry median of 27.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +4.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 66.7x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
20 analysts cover PGNY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.80 (range: $28.00 — $35.00), implying +65.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PGNY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20650.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.