MODEL VERDICT
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $27.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $28.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $19.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $10.98 | -59.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $8.93 | -67.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $17.10 | -37.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $5.45 | -80.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $3.48 | -87.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $1.96 | -92.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $29.58 | +8.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $34.32 | +25.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $16.46 | -39.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $5.48 | -80.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.61 | -53.9% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 60.63 | 39.65 | 28.87 | 113.37 | 45.99 |
| P/TBV | 33.23 | 8.68 | 6.18 | 126.11 | 52.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.16 | 5.42 | 3.66 | 15.50 | 5.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.46 | 3.57 | 2.14 | 4.50 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates HIMS's fair value at $12.61 vs the current price of $27.39, implying -53.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.41 (P10) to $16.57 (P90), with a median of $12.37.
HIMS's current P/E of 53.7x compares to the industry median of 33.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +60.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover HIMS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.67 (range: $12.50 — $60.00), implying +8.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HIMS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.