MODEL VERDICT
The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $199.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $200.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $202.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $201.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $194.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $151.48 | -24.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $69.96 | -64.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $173.10 | -13.2% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $55.84 | -72.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $151.48 | -24.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $72.31 | -63.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $195.59 | -1.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $178.12 | -10.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $168.07 | -15.7% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $153 | $184 | $215 | $246 | $276 |
| Conservative (11%) | $159 | $191 | $223 | $255 | $287 |
| Base Case (16.5%) | $168 | $201 | $235 | $268 | $302 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $176 | $211 | $246 | $282 | $317 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.06 | 16.64 | 10.24 | 109.92 | 35.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.06 | 13.43 | 8.58 | 70.62 | 22.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.40 | 13.42 | 8.45 | 67.05 | 20.91 |
| P/FCF | 8.56 | 8.70 | 5.88 | 11.61 | 1.81 |
| P/FFO | 22.96 | 16.07 | 9.63 | 74.08 | 22.97 |
| P/TBV | 4.25 | 3.54 | 3.27 | 6.02 | 1.08 |
| P/AFFO | 27.97 | 16.61 | 10.00 | 103.47 | 33.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.00 | 3.41 | 3.11 | 5.50 | 0.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 1.87 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PGR's fair value at $168.07 vs the current price of $199.31, implying -15.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $168.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.99 (P10) to $269.01 (P90), with a median of $179.75.
PGR's current P/E of 13.8x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +31.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover PGR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $230.27 (range: $216.00 — $259.00), implying +15.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.6% is 4.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.2%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$273. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PGR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3700.0% to approximately $273. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.