MODEL VERDICT
Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (PHOE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $16.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $16.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $1.07 | -93.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $0.88 | -94.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $0.92 | -94.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $1.02 | -93.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.09 | -93.3% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates PHOE's fair value at $1.09 vs the current price of $16.37, implying -93.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.78 (P10) to $1.26 (P90), with a median of $1.02.
PHOE's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 23.5x (2 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: N/A.
No analyst coverage data is available for PHOE.
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (18), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PHOE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.