MODEL VERDICT
Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $47.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $50.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $51.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $47.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $44.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $35.30 | -26.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $204.17 | +325.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $195.42 | +307.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.50 | +28.2% | 100% | 47 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.53 | 13.71 | 3.69 | 21.41 | 6.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.36 | 12.83 | 5.00 | 21.48 | 6.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.53 | 10.21 | 3.98 | 11.42 | 3.47 |
| P/FCF | 13.70 | 15.10 | 5.46 | 19.14 | 5.83 |
| P/FFO | 12.07 | 9.03 | 2.74 | 33.16 | 10.80 |
| P/TBV | 2.60 | 1.58 | 1.31 | 7.35 | 2.19 |
| P/AFFO | 14.84 | 16.14 | 3.80 | 24.90 | 8.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.60 | 1.58 | 1.31 | 7.35 | 2.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.86 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTRN's fair value at $61.50 vs the current price of $47.96, implying +28.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.04 (P10) to $85.06 (P90), with a median of $70.48.
CTRN's current P/E of -9.2x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -129.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover CTRN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.00 (range: $68.00 — $68.00), implying +41.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CTRN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.