MODEL VERDICT
Polaris Inc. (PII)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $66.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $60.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $57.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $47.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $55.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $32.64 | -50.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $2.02 | -97.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $142.00 | +113.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $144.69 | +117.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $88.24 | +32.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $95.88 | +44.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $141.74 | +113.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $177.57 | +167.3% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.02 | 16.75 | 10.30 | 47.88 | 14.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.74 | 14.47 | 9.48 | 34.20 | 9.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.95 | 9.47 | 8.02 | 19.41 | 4.04 |
| P/FCF | 95.63 | 13.17 | 6.45 | 503.51 | 200.01 |
| P/FFO | 9.89 | 8.97 | 7.18 | 15.47 | 3.15 |
| P/TBV | 43.96 | 27.74 | 9.14 | 97.62 | 39.91 |
| P/AFFO | 20.62 | 18.68 | 11.77 | 34.76 | 8.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.67 | 5.21 | 2.53 | 5.72 | 1.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 0.93 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PII's fair value at $177.57 vs the current price of $66.42, implying +167.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $177.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.70 (P10) to $389.51 (P90), with a median of $142.48.
PII's current P/E of -8.1x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -138.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover PII with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $68.75 (range: $59.00 — $83.00), implying +3.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (24), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PII.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.