MODEL VERDICT
Fox Factory Holding Corp. (FOXF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $17.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $17.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $17.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $16.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $16.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $15.03 | -15.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $10.44 | -41.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $12.32 | -30.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $33.52 | +89.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $26.56 | +49.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $10.40 | -41.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.44 | +94.2% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.75 | 36.59 | 18.85 | 189.19 | 64.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.11 | 29.47 | 16.20 | 39.43 | 9.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.90 | 18.69 | 13.29 | 30.85 | 8.03 |
| P/FCF | 153.36 | 26.97 | 14.38 | 690.01 | 244.10 |
| P/FFO | 23.20 | 20.29 | 14.01 | 34.77 | 9.67 |
| P/TBV | 13.75 | 11.20 | 1.22 | 28.11 | 9.06 |
| P/AFFO | 37.65 | 37.35 | 18.34 | 63.56 | 17.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.06 | 3.45 | 1.05 | 8.06 | 2.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.83 | 2.41 | 0.49 | 5.55 | 1.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOXF's fair value at $34.44 vs the current price of $17.74, implying +94.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.87 (P10) to $55.95 (P90), with a median of $28.67.
FOXF's current P/E of -1.4x compares to the industry median of 20.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -106.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 58.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover FOXF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.50 (range: $19.00 — $24.00), implying +21.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FOXF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.