MODEL VERDICT
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $24.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $7.23 | -70.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $45.50 | +85.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $61.97 | +153.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $40.95 | +67.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $129.71 | +429.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $72.48 | +196.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $1898.75 | +7656.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $54.32 | +121.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $25.41 | +3.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $68.77 | +180.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $39.31 | +60.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $330.84 | +1251.5% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (88%) | $26 | $37 | $47 | $57 | $68 |
| Conservative (142%) | $34 | $47 | $61 | $74 | $88 |
| Base Case (219.1%) | $44 | $62 | $80 | $98 | $115 |
| Bull Case (296%) | $55 | $77 | $99 | $121 | $143 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 632.00 | 8.76 | 7.37 | 4369.05 | 1647.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 117.08 | 12.82 | 1.44 | 742.33 | 275.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.00 | 11.75 | 1.44 | 58.47 | 18.51 |
| P/FCF | 8.11 | 6.83 | 4.60 | 15.66 | 3.78 |
| P/FFO | 10.99 | 7.06 | 6.18 | 30.20 | 9.46 |
| P/TBV | 2.18 | 2.19 | 0.91 | 3.43 | 0.98 |
| P/AFFO | 24.62 | 8.95 | 8.13 | 100.93 | 37.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.11 | 2.14 | 0.91 | 3.28 | 0.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 1.08 | 0.56 | 1.39 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HOG's fair value at $330.84 vs the current price of $24.48, implying +1251.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $330.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.94 (P10) to $593.48 (P90), with a median of $178.50.
HOG's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 22.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -60.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 632.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
35 analysts cover HOG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $20.80 (range: $12.00 — $25.00), implying -15.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (24), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HOG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1021170.0% to approximately $2524. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.