MODEL VERDICT
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $218.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $212.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $213.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $207.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $206.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $122.52 | -43.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $134.36 | -38.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $117.76 | -46.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $109.94 | -49.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $148.09 | -32.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $140.85 | -35.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $123.86 | -43.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $84.44 | -61.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $72.57 | -66.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $114.61 | -47.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $109.46 | -49.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $139.33 | -36.1% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $189 | $207 | $225 | $243 | $261 |
| Conservative (8%) | $194 | $213 | $231 | $250 | $268 |
| Base Case (12.1%) | $202 | $221 | $240 | $260 | $279 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $210 | $230 | $249 | $269 | $289 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.88 | 19.21 | 11.61 | 28.44 | 6.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.79 | 16.03 | 9.98 | 20.36 | 4.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.44 | 10.74 | 7.63 | 13.67 | 2.14 |
| P/FCF | 22.79 | 21.29 | 13.04 | 38.64 | 8.41 |
| P/FFO | 11.77 | 11.37 | 7.98 | 15.14 | 2.71 |
| P/TBV | 5.79 | 5.81 | 4.79 | 7.04 | 0.76 |
| P/AFFO | 23.09 | 19.69 | 15.40 | 31.17 | 6.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.78 | 3.65 | 3.23 | 4.58 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.84 | 1.87 | 1.40 | 2.40 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PKG's fair value at $139.33 vs the current price of $218.01, implying -36.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $139.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $123.13 (P10) to $153.12 (P90), with a median of $138.07.
PKG's current P/E of 25.4x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +85.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover PKG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $245.00 (range: $232.00 — $258.00), implying +12.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PKG trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PKG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2780.0% to approximately $279. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.