MODEL VERDICT
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, competitive benchmarking & quality-adjusted fair value
The market is pricing Packaging Corporation of America at a 46.67% premium to its peer-implied fair value.
4 curated peers matched by business model, revenue composition, and market position
3 valuation metrics · peer-median based
| Multiple | Current | Peer Median | vs Peers | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/EPrice paid for next year's expected earnings. | 22.13x | 12.56x | Premium +76.19% | $129.99 |
| EV/EBITDAEnterprise value versus operating cash earnings proxy. | 12.72x | 6.95x | Premium +82.94% | $102.99 |
| P/FCFPrice paid for free cash flow. | 28.04x | 12.73x | Premium +120.31% | $103.50 |
How the model derives the final fair value from peer baselines and quality metrics
Premium: The stock is trading at a 87.53% premium to its quality-adjusted fair value of $122.12. The market is pricing the stock 46.68% above our model's estimate.
Quality metrics are stronger than the peer group, justifying a premium.
Quality adjustments are capped at ±15% (up to ±20% for financial services) to prevent runaway premiums. Based on trailing twelve months and multi-year CAGR data where available.
How current multiples rank vs 8 years of the stock’s own history
| Multiple | Current | Historical Median | Percentile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E8 years of data | 26.69x | 17.32x | 88th | Above historical norm |
| EV/EBITDA8 years of data | 12.72x | 9.77x | 88th | Above historical norm |
| P/FCF8 years of data | 28.04x | 19.48x | 88th | Above historical norm |
Packaging Corporation of America currently trades near the highest valuation levels observed during the last 8 years.
Wall Street target prices — 26 analysts
Model-identified caveats to consider
PKG looks expensive versus peers using AI-curated peers, with relative upside of -46.7%.
Answers to common questions about PKG's relative valuation and our methodology.
Packaging Corporation of America's fair value of $122.13 is the price at which the stock would trade if valued at the same multiples as its 4-company peer group, adjusted for differences in business quality. At $229.02, the stock trades at a -46.67% premium to fair value. This is a reference point, not a price target.
The 4 peers shown were selected based on business model similarity, revenue composition, and market position. Each peer was matched for comparable operations, not just industry label. Only companies with clean, usable financial data are included.
Packaging Corporation of America has strengths in 3y revenue growth, roic, fcf margin, net debt / ebitda, and challenges in 3y eps growth, and a quality score that justifies a 7.2% premium relative to its peer group. The Quality Adjustment section breaks down each driver.
No. This page provides an automated quantitative comparison of Packaging Corporation of America against its peers. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Valuation is only one factor in an investment decision — it does not account for growth catalysts, management quality, regulatory risk, or your personal financial situation.
A 46.67% premium is substantial. Large premiums suggest the market is pricing in significant growth or quality advantages that must be delivered to justify the current price. Review the Risk Factors and Historical Context sections to assess whether the gap is justified.
Valuation data is refreshed weekly based on the latest financial filings, market prices, and analyst estimates. Packaging Corporation of America's fair value, peer multiples, and quality scores will shift over time as new earnings are reported and stock prices change.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.