MODEL VERDICT
ePlus inc. (PLUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $85.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $84.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $85.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $80.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $81.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $67.40 | -20.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $100.03 | +17.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $77.85 | -8.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $150.47 | +76.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $91.76 | +7.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $191.47 | +124.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $76.85 | -9.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $68.71 | -19.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $51.01 | -40.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $73.98 | -13.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $145.46 | +70.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $104.87 | +23.1% | 100% | 97 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $72 | $80 | $89 | $97 | $105 |
| Conservative (6%) | $73 | $82 | $91 | $99 | $108 |
| Base Case (9.6%) | $76 | $85 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $78 | $87 | $96 | $105 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.49 | 17.82 | 11.27 | 21.60 | 3.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.71 | 13.63 | 8.21 | 14.59 | 2.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.12 | 11.86 | 7.07 | 13.35 | 2.03 |
| P/FCF | 17.39 | 10.24 | 7.90 | 41.20 | 15.99 |
| P/FFO | 14.18 | 15.10 | 9.16 | 16.97 | 2.50 |
| P/TBV | 3.33 | 3.43 | 2.35 | 4.17 | 0.59 |
| P/AFFO | 15.74 | 16.55 | 11.15 | 17.84 | 2.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.40 | 2.43 | 1.80 | 2.72 | 0.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.65 | 1.13 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLUS's fair value at $104.87 vs the current price of $85.21, implying +23.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $104.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $87.01 (P10) to $120.19 (P90), with a median of $101.80.
PLUS's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 19.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +9.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
5 analysts cover PLUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.6% is 2.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.1%), with a Z-score of +4.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$48. (2) Multiple compression: PLUS trades at the 3160th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PLUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +4.5σ, meaning margins are 4.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4420.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.