MODEL VERDICT
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (PNFP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $98.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $95.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $97.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $93.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $92.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $84.37 | -14.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $115.62 | +17.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $106.95 | +8.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $41.76 | -57.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $84.37 | -14.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $109.41 | +10.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.85 | -7.9% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $79 | $91 | $103 | $116 | $128 |
| Conservative (5%) | $81 | $94 | $106 | $119 | $131 |
| Base Case (2.7%) | $80 | $92 | $104 | $116 | $129 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $80 | $93 | $105 | $117 | $130 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.42 | 12.26 | 9.94 | 19.19 | 3.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.48 | 10.24 | 7.20 | 15.04 | 3.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.80 | 9.23 | 6.66 | 14.79 | 3.03 |
| P/FCF | 11.80 | 11.43 | 7.99 | 16.71 | 2.68 |
| P/FFO | 11.93 | 12.01 | 8.97 | 15.38 | 2.15 |
| P/TBV | 1.78 | 1.69 | 1.54 | 2.10 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 13.34 | 13.01 | 9.99 | 18.41 | 2.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.11 | 0.90 | 1.37 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.85 | 3.61 | 2.70 | 5.96 | 1.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PNFP's fair value at $90.85 vs the current price of $98.64, implying -7.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $87.43 (P10) to $98.78 (P90), with a median of $93.05.
PNFP's current P/E of 16.6x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +16.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
21 analysts cover PNFP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $117.63 (range: $109.00 — $135.00), implying +19.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PNFP trades at the 7940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PNFP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4530.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.