MODEL VERDICT
PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation (PNRG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $198.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $188.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $189.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $175.73 | Pending | +9.8% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $173.34 | Pending | +11.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $74.89 | -62.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $236.38 | +18.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $313.29 | +57.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $290.55 | +46.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $946.40 | +375.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $185.15 | -6.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $164.67 | -17.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $313.28 | +57.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $338.58 | +70.2% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (31%) | $144 | $201 | $259 | $316 | $374 |
| Conservative (50%) | $165 | $231 | $297 | $363 | $429 |
| Base Case (77.4%) | $195 | $273 | $350 | $428 | $506 |
| Bull Case (105%) | $224 | $314 | $404 | $494 | $584 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.95 | 11.86 | 4.84 | 121.01 | 51.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.76 | 10.04 | 3.67 | 54.29 | 19.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.81 | 5.48 | 3.83 | 23.03 | 6.76 |
| P/FCF | 24.68 | 19.54 | 13.73 | 45.89 | 14.94 |
| P/FFO | 5.20 | 4.18 | 3.07 | 10.61 | 2.68 |
| P/TBV | 2.13 | 1.88 | 0.88 | 4.07 | 1.01 |
| P/AFFO | 22.30 | 22.24 | 3.88 | 41.38 | 15.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 1.88 | 0.88 | 4.07 | 1.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.38 | 2.33 | 1.64 | 3.86 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates PNRG's fair value at $338.58 vs the current price of $198.90, implying +70.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $338.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $197.28 (P10) to $453.56 (P90), with a median of $305.52.
PNRG's current P/E of 9.1x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -36.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for PNRG.
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PNRG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (22.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 70120.0% to approximately $1594. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.