MODEL VERDICT
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $103.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $103.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $77.29 | -25.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $118.01 | +14.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $78.08 | -24.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $89.78 | -13.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $54.11 | -47.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $51.40 | -50.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $3728.32 | +3505.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $157.31 | +52.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $183.68 | +77.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $75.88 | -26.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $85.22 | -17.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $546.23 | +428.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (98%) | $163 | $185 | $207 | $229 | $251 |
| Conservative (159%) | $214 | $242 | $271 | $299 | $328 |
| Base Case (244.2%) | $284 | $322 | $360 | $398 | $436 |
| Bull Case (330%) | $355 | $402 | $450 | $497 | $545 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 863.47 | 20.29 | 7.47 | 5907.02 | 2224.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.26 | 17.67 | 9.21 | 24.24 | 4.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.38 | 10.62 | 9.67 | 14.61 | 1.95 |
| P/FCF | 17.54 | 13.19 | 12.07 | 43.90 | 11.67 |
| P/FFO | 8.91 | 9.08 | 4.98 | 12.73 | 2.48 |
| P/AFFO | 18.57 | 17.81 | 6.42 | 34.68 | 8.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.68 | 1.66 | 1.53 | 1.87 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.90 | 0.96 | 0.76 | 0.99 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates POST's fair value at $546.23 vs the current price of $103.40, implying +428.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $546.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.71 (P10) to $1522.28 (P90), with a median of $412.63.
POST's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +32.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 863.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover POST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $119.50 (range: $110.00 — $129.00), implying +15.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that POST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 543130.0% to approximately $5719. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.