MODEL VERDICT
Permian Resources Corporation (PR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $17.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $17.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $16.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $14.03 | Below threshold | +22.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $15.04 | -17.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $24.12 | +31.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $17.84 | -2.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $45.24 | +147.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $21.52 | +17.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $53.80 | +194.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $17.83 | -2.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $46.66 | +155.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.12 | +59.2% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.28 | 10.96 | 5.84 | 77.00 | 27.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.54 | 7.63 | 5.37 | 29.11 | 9.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.84 | 3.93 | 2.93 | 4.35 | 0.53 |
| P/FCF | 12.69 | 9.05 | 2.84 | 33.79 | 12.37 |
| P/FFO | 3.43 | 3.51 | 2.64 | 4.20 | 0.51 |
| P/TBV | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 0.94 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 4.22 | 4.28 | 3.20 | 5.79 | 1.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 0.94 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.47 | 1.56 | 0.72 | 1.97 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates PR's fair value at $29.12 vs the current price of $18.29, implying +59.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.20 (P10) to $36.22 (P90), with a median of $28.66.
PR's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +2.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.3x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover PR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.13 (range: $17.00 — $21.00), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7170.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.