MODEL VERDICT
ProAssurance Corporation (PRA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $11.13 | -54.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $57.06 | +131.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $15.20 | -38.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $76.29 | +209.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $11.11 | -54.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $53.15 | +115.6% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $49.26 | +99.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $41.12 | +66.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.00 | +236.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 498.08 | 19.93 | 9.48 | 1943.01 | 963.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.56 | 15.97 | 10.04 | 96.27 | 41.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.52 | 17.11 | 9.08 | 42.79 | 14.79 |
| P/FCF | 14.95 | 14.04 | 11.30 | 19.50 | 4.18 |
| P/FFO | 32.50 | 19.32 | 7.54 | 98.93 | 37.76 |
| P/TBV | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.70 | 1.58 | 0.30 |
| P/AFFO | 60.59 | 20.83 | 7.70 | 192.98 | 88.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.65 | 1.29 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.09 | 1.08 | 0.64 | 1.93 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRA's fair value at $83.00 vs the current price of $24.66, implying +236.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.87 (P10) to $261.45 (P90), with a median of $97.23.
PRA's current P/E of 24.9x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +121.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 498.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover PRA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.33 (range: $17.00 — $20.00), implying -25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PRA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.