MODEL VERDICT
Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $180.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $171.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $164.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $162.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $161.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $227.70 | +26.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $257.41 | +42.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $279.95 | +55.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $281.92 | +56.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $285.82 | +58.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $315.34 | +74.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $146.40 | -18.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $372.08 | +106.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $335.86 | +86.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $279.86 | +55.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $281.91 | +56.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.45 | +11.7% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $162 | $178 | $194 | $210 | $226 |
| Conservative (12%) | $169 | $185 | $202 | $219 | $236 |
| Base Case (18.4%) | $178 | $196 | $214 | $232 | $250 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $188 | $207 | $226 | $244 | $263 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.51 | 13.81 | 8.88 | 24.73 | 6.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.35 | 11.47 | 9.32 | 16.08 | 2.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.73 | 7.73 | 6.26 | 13.16 | 2.68 |
| P/FCF | 20.33 | 18.85 | 5.42 | 46.46 | 15.78 |
| P/FFO | 9.45 | 7.16 | 5.08 | 18.55 | 5.21 |
| P/TBV | 7.75 | 8.05 | 3.06 | 12.09 | 4.31 |
| P/AFFO | 17.14 | 14.58 | 8.58 | 28.72 | 7.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.06 | 4.05 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.90 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRIM's fair value at $201.45 vs the current price of $180.35, implying +11.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $200.17 (P10) to $242.44 (P90), with a median of $221.05.
PRIM's current P/E of 35.9x compares to the industry median of 55.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -35.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover PRIM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $160.63 (range: $133.00 — $195.00), implying -10.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 3.6% is 0.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (4.8%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$103. (2) Multiple compression: PRIM trades at the 3080th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRIM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4310.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.