MODEL VERDICT
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $13.79 | -15.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $24.36 | +49.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $28.93 | +77.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $22.87 | +40.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $13.79 | -15.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $15.63 | -3.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.66 | +14.7% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (-1.6%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.69 | 15.55 | 10.60 | 37.76 | 9.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.03 | 20.93 | 12.77 | 33.25 | 8.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.85 | 16.65 | 9.27 | 21.99 | 6.14 |
| P/FCF | 11.83 | 10.98 | 1.56 | 27.03 | 8.14 |
| P/FFO | 11.23 | 10.54 | 7.36 | 22.20 | 5.06 |
| P/TBV | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 1.39 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 11.93 | 10.97 | 7.45 | 23.62 | 5.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 1.38 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.38 | 2.53 | 1.79 | 3.13 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PROV's fair value at $18.66 vs the current price of $16.26, implying +14.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.82 (P10) to $21.02 (P90), with a median of $18.88.
PROV's current P/E of 17.5x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +17.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
10 analysts cover PROV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $16.00 — $16.00), implying -1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PROV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.