Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Jun 12, 2026
Current Price
$17.11
Price Target
$16.00
Target Range
$16.00 — $16.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E15.4x
Trailing P/E18.4x
Forward PEG—
Implied Growth+9.8%
Median Target$16.00
Analyst Spread0.0%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$16
-6.5%
Consensus
$16
-6.5%
Bull Case
$16
-6.5%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 44/100
Bear$16
Base$23
Bull$47
PROV Price Target Analysis
Updated June 13, 2026As of June 13, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $16.00, based on estimates from 10 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $17.11, this represents a potential downside of -6.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $109M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $16.00 to a high of $16.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $16.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,8 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, PROV trades at a trailing P/E of 18.4x and forward P/E of 15.4x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +9.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $22.94, with bear and bull scenarios of $16.06 and $46.79 respectively. Model confidence stands at 44/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+2.1%
Avg Forward P/E14.3x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 WAFDWaFd, Inc. | $2.9B | $37.07 | $35.00 | -5.6% | Hold | 11.4x | 11 |
 HOMBHome Bancshares, Inc. | $5.6B | $28.25 | $31.50 | +11.5% | Hold | 11.5x | 19 |
 NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc. | $2.2B | $14.79 | $14.67 | -0.8% | Hold | 10.7x | 14 |
 KRNYKearny Financial Corp. | $553M | $8.79 | $9.50 | +8.1% | Hold | 14.1x | 5 |
 BSVNBank7 Corp. | $446M | $46.48 | $57.00 | +22.6% | Buy | 10.5x | 3 |
 CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc. | $1.1B | $8.25 | $7.00 | -15.2% | Hold | 12.5x | 5 |
 TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY | $979M | $55.25 | — | — | Hold | 19.3x | 3 |
 HFWAHeritage Financial Corporation | $987M | $29.04 | $31.33 | +7.9% | Buy | 14.1x | 14 |
 FFICFlushing Financial Corporation | $524M | $15.47 | $16.75 | +8.3% | Hold | 11.0x | 10 |
 CLBKColumbia Financial, Inc. | $2.2B | $20.70 | $17.00 | -17.9% | Hold | 28.0x | 2 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Compare NowPROV — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying PROV stock.
What is the PROV stock price target for 2026?
Wall Street's consensus price target for PROV is $16, -6.5% from its current price of $17.11. The below-market target from 10 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
Is PROV a buy, sell, or hold?
PROV has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 10 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 8 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $16 implies -6.5% downside from current levels.
Is PROV stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 15.4144x, PROV trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $16 implies -6.5% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can PROV stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $16 for PROV, while the most conservative target is $16. The consensus of $16 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $47 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover PROV stock?
PROV is moderately covered, with 10 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 8 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the PROV stock forecast?
The 12-month PROV stock forecast based on 10 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $16, with estimates ranging from $16 (bear case) to $16 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $23, with bear/bull scenarios of $16/$47.
What is PROV's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates PROV's fair value at $23 (base case), with a bear case of $16 and bull case of $47. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 44/100.
What is PROV's forward P/E ratio?
PROV trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 18.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy PROV stock?
Analysts are cautious on PROV, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $16 (-6.5% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do PROV price targets vary so much?
PROV analyst price targets range from $16 to $16, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $16 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $16-$47 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.