MODEL VERDICT
Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. (PRTH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $19.73 | +270.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $18.21 | +241.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $20.60 | +286.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $15.81 | +196.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $30.33 | +469.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $2.29 | -57.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $11.80 | +121.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $30.23 | +467.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $17.88 | +235.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $16.16 | +203.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.49 | +321.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (5%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $9 |
| Base Case (-8.5%) | $2 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $2 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 127.17 | 8.01 | 6.64 | 366.84 | 207.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.01 | 14.17 | 6.64 | 82.43 | 26.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.14 | 9.34 | 5.86 | 14.06 | 3.47 |
| P/FCF | 26.55 | 7.97 | 4.65 | 99.88 | 41.16 |
| P/FFO | 10.29 | 7.13 | 3.74 | 29.87 | 9.07 |
| P/AFFO | 9.10 | 8.16 | 4.73 | 15.18 | 3.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02 | 3.10 | 2.48 | 3.49 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.37 | 1.17 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRTH's fair value at $22.49 vs the current price of $5.33, implying +321.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.79 (P10) to $38.45 (P90), with a median of $24.76.
PRTH's current P/E of 7.8x compares to the industry median of 30.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -74.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 127.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover PRTH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +106.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRTH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (0.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10210.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.