MODEL VERDICT
Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $98.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $94.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $96.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $138.04 | +40.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $168.16 | +70.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $132.91 | +34.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $138.04 | +40.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $50.67 | -48.6% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $166.80 | +69.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $370.46 | +275.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $162.47 | +64.7% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $64 | $85 | $106 | $128 | $149 |
| Conservative (7%) | $65 | $87 | $109 | $131 | $152 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $67 | $90 | $112 | $135 | $157 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $70 | $93 | $116 | $139 | $162 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.41 | 11.04 | 5.55 | 15.80 | 4.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.05 | 10.72 | 4.52 | 14.23 | 4.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.94 | 10.33 | 0.82 | 284.68 | 113.14 |
| P/FCF | 4.69 | 4.51 | 2.43 | 7.18 | 1.67 |
| P/FFO | 82.91 | 13.69 | 4.65 | 372.29 | 161.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.26 | 1.24 | 0.49 | 2.89 | 0.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 1.11 | 0.45 | 1.41 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRU's fair value at $162.47 vs the current price of $98.62, implying +64.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $162.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.40 (P10) to $268.32 (P90), with a median of $166.93.
PRU's current P/E of 9.6x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -28.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.4x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
37 analysts cover PRU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $104.13 (range: $87.00 — $120.00), implying +5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (25), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2060.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.