MODEL VERDICT
Public Storage (PSA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $307.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $305.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $300.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $292.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $278.15 | Below threshold | +3.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $308.83 | +0.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $94.46 | -69.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $242.45 | -21.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $336.50 | +9.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $239.25 | -22.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $213.88 | -30.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $290.98 | -5.2% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $260 | $288 | $315 | $343 | $371 |
| Conservative (5%) | $265 | $293 | $322 | $350 | $378 |
| Base Case (7.5%) | $271 | $300 | $329 | $358 | $387 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $278 | $308 | $337 | $367 | $397 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.62 | 28.80 | 11.92 | 37.95 | 8.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.73 | 26.13 | 12.28 | 35.15 | 7.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.86 | 18.99 | 12.19 | 29.97 | 5.32 |
| P/FCF | 20.27 | 19.46 | 14.33 | 28.93 | 4.41 |
| P/FFO | 17.52 | 17.23 | 9.43 | 24.66 | 4.75 |
| P/TBV | 5.30 | 4.97 | 4.19 | 7.21 | 0.96 |
| P/AFFO | 20.04 | 20.18 | 10.34 | 27.44 | 5.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.17 | 4.89 | 4.09 | 6.98 | 0.90 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.93 | 11.89 | 9.46 | 19.25 | 3.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates PSA's fair value at $290.98 vs the current price of $307.06, implying -5.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $290.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $234.00 (P10) to $336.07 (P90), with a median of $284.78.
PSA's current P/E of 34.1x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +26.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
36 analysts cover PSA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $301.22 (range: $276.00 — $331.00), implying -1.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (22), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PSA trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PSA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (49.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 560.0% to approximately $324. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.