Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$307.06
→
Intrinsic$282.19
-8%
$174.98$282.19$485.96
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
PSA appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $307, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (11%).
Range: Bear $175 → Bull $486. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $348 | $384 | $423 | $464 |
| 10% | $231 | $256 | $282 | $311 |
| 12% | $166 | $184 | $204 | $226 |
| 14% | $125 | $139 | $155 | $172 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($486) offers 58% upside at 13% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 11% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($175) implies 43% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$3.26B
Year 2$3.61B
Year 3$3.99B
Year 4$4.41B
Year 5$4.88B
Terminal$71.81B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$2.95BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.