MODEL VERDICT
Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $2.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $5.70 | +102.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $5.70 | +102.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $9.26 | +229.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $4.07 | +44.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.42 | +93.0% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.27 | 8.59 | 3.36 | 16.51 | 6.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.83 | 12.83 | 5.62 | 32.06 | 11.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.83 | 12.83 | 5.62 | 32.06 | 11.60 |
| P/FCF | 23.49 | 7.39 | 4.64 | 104.65 | 39.81 |
| P/FFO | 8.50 | 4.65 | 3.38 | 17.47 | 7.80 |
| P/TBV | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.82 | 0.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.82 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.48 | 5.48 | 2.83 | 27.34 | 9.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates PSEC's fair value at $5.42 vs the current price of $2.81, implying +93.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.85 (P10) to $8.77 (P90), with a median of $5.55.
PSEC's current P/E of -2.1x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -121.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover PSEC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.50 (range: $2.50 — $2.50), implying -11.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (11), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PSEC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.