MODEL VERDICT
PTC Inc. (PTC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $156.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $155.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $156.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $162.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $171.52 | Pending | -6.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $164.41 | +5.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $202.45 | +29.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $160.10 | +2.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $138.52 | -11.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $196.36 | +25.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $118.53 | -24.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $413.76 | +164.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $71.55 | -54.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $78.31 | -50.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $177.57 | +13.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $138.68 | -11.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $223.38 | +42.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $155 | $169 | $184 | $198 | $212 |
| Conservative (26%) | $169 | $184 | $199 | $215 | $230 |
| Base Case (40.3%) | $188 | $205 | $222 | $239 | $256 |
| Bull Case (54%) | $207 | $225 | $244 | $263 | $282 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.11 | 52.12 | 28.65 | 106.79 | 31.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.71 | 40.54 | 22.29 | 145.48 | 41.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.39 | 32.72 | 19.88 | 47.14 | 9.68 |
| P/FCF | 39.36 | 35.61 | 24.56 | 68.65 | 14.14 |
| P/FFO | 58.40 | 42.88 | 23.92 | 175.05 | 53.06 |
| P/AFFO | 41.06 | 39.13 | 24.51 | 60.46 | 15.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.20 | 7.03 | 5.50 | 9.67 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.45 | 7.94 | 7.02 | 9.96 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTC's fair value at $223.38 vs the current price of $156.59, implying +42.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $223.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $174.00 (P10) to $247.84 (P90), with a median of $210.25.
PTC's current P/E of 25.8x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -2.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.1x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover PTC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $204.83 (range: $180.00 — $255.00), implying +30.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.6% is 13.7 percentage points above the 6-year average (14.9%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$187. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PTC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1950.0% to approximately $187. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.