MODEL VERDICT
PTC Inc. (PTC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $136.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $137.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $139.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $136.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $133.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $205.43 | +50.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $344.14 | +152.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $288.01 | +110.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $244.59 | +79.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $318.05 | +133.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $236.83 | +73.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $885.08 | +548.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $203.88 | +49.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $198.87 | +45.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $275.94 | +102.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $196.11 | +43.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $320.82 | +135.0% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $127 | $141 | $155 | $169 | $184 |
| Conservative (26%) | $138 | $153 | $169 | $184 | $199 |
| Base Case (40.3%) | $154 | $171 | $188 | $205 | $222 |
| Bull Case (54%) | $169 | $188 | $207 | $225 | $244 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.11 | 52.12 | 28.65 | 106.79 | 31.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.71 | 40.54 | 22.29 | 145.48 | 41.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.39 | 32.72 | 19.88 | 47.14 | 9.68 |
| P/FCF | 39.36 | 35.61 | 24.56 | 68.65 | 14.14 |
| P/FFO | 58.40 | 42.88 | 23.92 | 175.05 | 53.06 |
| P/AFFO | 41.06 | 39.13 | 24.51 | 60.46 | 15.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.20 | 7.03 | 5.50 | 9.67 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.45 | 7.94 | 7.02 | 9.96 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTC's fair value at $320.82 vs the current price of $136.53, implying +135.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $320.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $242.21 (P10) to $319.96 (P90), with a median of $280.15.
PTC's current P/E of 22.5x compares to the industry median of 47.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -52.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover PTC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $194.80 (range: $180.00 — $210.00), implying +42.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.6% is 13.7 percentage points above the 6-year average (14.9%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$187. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PTC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3710.0% to approximately $187. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.