Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$156.59
→
Intrinsic$240.85
+54%
$160.85$240.85$392.64
Market implies 14% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests PTC could have 54% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $157, the market prices in 14% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $161 → Bull $393. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $299 | $323 | $350 | $378 |
| 10% | $206 | $223 | $241 | $260 |
| 12% | $155 | $167 | $181 | $195 |
| 14% | $122 | $132 | $143 | $154 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($393) offers 151% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (14%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($161) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.07B
Year 2$1.34B
Year 3$1.67B
Year 4$2.09B
Year 5$2.61B
Terminal$38.47B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$856.69MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.