MODEL VERDICT
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $5.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $5.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $5.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $4.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $4.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $4.54 | -15.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $2.17 | -59.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $19.82 | +269.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $17.81 | +232.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $13.17 | +145.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $9.85 | +83.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $17.38 | +224.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.63 | +60.9% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 13.65 | 14.38 | 5.01 | 20.83 | 8.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.47 | 12.79 | 4.32 | 19.98 | 8.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.74 | 1.18 | 0.71 | 18.36 | 6.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTON's fair value at $8.63 vs the current price of $5.36, implying +60.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.38 (P10) to $12.43 (P90), with a median of $9.87.
PTON's current P/E of -17.9x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -166.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
40 analysts cover PTON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.10 (range: $5.50 — $9.00), implying +32.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PTON.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.