MODEL VERDICT
VNET Group, Inc. (VNET)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $14.56 | +74.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $141.59 | +1597.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $38.10 | +356.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $19.34 | +131.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $183.46 | +2099.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $159.82 | +1816.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $36.27 | +334.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.84 | +521.6% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 72× | 79× | 86× (Current) | 93× | 100× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| Conservative (7%) | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $52 | $57 | $62 | $68 | $73 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $54 | $59 | $64 | $70 | $75 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 52.13 | 16.85 | 6.20 | 200.02 | 83.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.41 | 7.73 | 1.85 | 8.53 | 2.77 |
| P/FFO | 1.24 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 2.26 | 0.62 |
| P/TBV | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.79 | 0.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 0.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.27 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.86 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates VNET's fair value at $51.84 vs the current price of $8.34, implying +521.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.37 (P10) to $75.47 (P90), with a median of $57.30.
VNET's current P/E of 86.3x compares to the industry median of 57.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +49.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover VNET with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.55 (range: $23.55 — $23.55), implying +182.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VNET.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.