MODEL VERDICT
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $177.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $148.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $136.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $133.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $128.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $400.22 | +126.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $536.39 | +203.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $436.94 | +146.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $810.74 | +358.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $1012.94 | +472.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $879.76 | +397.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $18.44 | -89.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $697.41 | +294.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $706.68 | +299.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $436.94 | +146.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $807.64 | +356.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $502.63 | +184.0% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $148 | $164 | $179 | $194 | $210 |
| Conservative (5%) | $153 | $168 | $184 | $200 | $216 |
| Base Case (2.1%) | $148 | $164 | $179 | $194 | $210 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $149 | $165 | $180 | $196 | $211 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.56 | 23.24 | 9.66 | 34.14 | 8.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.13 | 16.42 | 8.94 | 29.56 | 6.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.83 | 15.38 | 7.85 | 24.07 | 5.20 |
| P/FCF | 20.85 | 16.82 | 14.74 | 39.72 | 8.89 |
| P/FFO | 18.94 | 18.60 | 8.50 | 26.56 | 6.37 |
| P/TBV | 48.37 | 21.73 | 12.20 | 168.63 | 67.35 |
| P/AFFO | 22.73 | 21.97 | 10.05 | 33.77 | 8.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.55 | 8.91 | 6.61 | 28.80 | 9.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.89 | 4.46 | 2.83 | 7.44 | 1.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates QCOM's fair value at $502.63 vs the current price of $177.01, implying +184.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $502.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $421.99 (P10) to $536.62 (P90), with a median of $478.27.
QCOM's current P/E of 35.3x compares to the industry median of 87.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -59.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
69 analysts cover QCOM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $175.00 (range: $120.00 — $300.00), implying -1.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (30), Hold (34), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: QCOM trades at the 2340th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that QCOM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1240.0% to approximately $155. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.