Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$142.36
→
Intrinsic$294.53
+107%
$194.84$294.53$492.84
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests QCOM could have 107% upside at 15% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $142, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 15%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $195 → Bull $493. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $368 | $401 | $436 | $473 |
| 10% | $250 | $271 | $295 | $319 |
| 12% | $187 | $203 | $220 | $238 |
| 14% | $148 | $161 | $174 | $188 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($493) offers 246% upside at 18% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (15%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($195) with 12% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$14.74B
Year 2$16.95B
Year 3$19.50B
Year 4$22.42B
Year 5$25.79B
Terminal$408.60B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate15.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$12.82BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.