MODEL VERDICT
Qudian Inc. (QD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 50 industry peers | $5.75 | +98.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 53 industry peers | $87.71 | +2924.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 51 bank peers | $93.57 | +3126.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $5.97 | +105.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.82 | +997.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Base Case (-46.2%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-62%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.15 | 0.49 | 0.38 | 11.33 | 4.54 |
| P/FCF | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 0.58 | 0.18 |
| P/FFO | 1.82 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 5.59 | 2.24 |
| P/TBV | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| P/AFFO | 0.68 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 1.23 | 0.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 3.56 | 1.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates QD's fair value at $31.82 vs the current price of $2.90, implying +997.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.95 (P10) to $43.97 (P90), with a median of $29.96.
QD's current P/E of 41.0x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a +249.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover QD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: QD trades at the 9400th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for QD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.